Revision of biological reference points for the red king crab and snow crab in Russian waters of the Barents Sea: accounting for spatial heterogeneity, acclimatization nature and assessment uncertainty

The paper presents the results of a revision of biological reference points for the management of red king crab (Paralithodes camtschaticus) and snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) stocks in the Russian exclusive economic zone of the Barents Sea. The work is based on official catch time series and relative abundance indices for the periods 1994–2025 (for red king crab) and 2004–2025 (for snow crab). Using a Bayesian stochastic Schaefer surplus production model implemented in the JABBA package, a retrospective stock dynamics assessment, sensitivity analysis to prior parameter distributions, and projection modeling under various harvest scenarios were performed. Special attention is paid to methodological problems arising when assessing acclimatized populations: violation of the initial equilibrium condition, insufficient contrast in time series, and the need to distinguish between global and effective environmental carrying capacity. It has been established that the decline in commercial biomass of both species observed since 2020 reflects the end of the acclimatization outbreak phase and the transition to a new dynamic equilibrium. New estimates of reference points were obtained: for red king crab, MSY = 13,7 ktons, B_tr = 91 ktons, B_lim = 27 ktons, F_tr = 0,15; for snow crab, MSY = 17,7 ktons, B_tr = 116 ktons, B_lim = 35 ktons, F_tr = 0,15. Projection scenarios up to 2035 show that exceeding an annual catch of 14 thousand t for red king crab and 18 thousand t for snow crab is accompanied by an increased risk of the stock falling below the target reference point. The best balance between harvest level and stock conservation is provided by a dynamic harvest control rule with biomass feedback. The proposed reference points comply with the precautionary approach principles and are recommended for inclusion in regulatory documents governing crab fisheries in the Barents Sea.

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