NEW APPROACHES TO NORTH-EAST ARCTIC COD STOCK ASSESSMENT AND FORECASTING TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THE FISHERY AND CLIMATE DATA

Abstract

ICES Arctic Fisheries Working Group traditionally implements mathematical models based on scientific and fishery data for cod stock size and TAC (Total Allowable Catch) assessment. In 2016 и 2017 some of scientific surveys in the Barents Sea were not properly conducted or were not conducted at all. This decreased the quality of the results and gave rise to interest in implementation of additional sources of information. Such an additional source of information was the data from the “Rybolovstvo” Information System. The results of the assessment showed that the current state of cod stock allows to increase TAC for 2018 for more than 20% with respect to the value adopted by ICES Arctic Fisheries Working Group. The values of AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) Index, which revealed high correlation with the stock biomass, were used for forecasting the spawning stock biomass till 2025 what resulted in substantially different estimates of cod fishery perspectives in comparison to the results of implementation of traditional methods. The results obtained show the necessity of broadening of information basis used for cod stock assessment and forecasting in the cases of deficit of traditional data.